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Tuesday, August 25, 2009

The swine flu opportunity ...

If you are interested in the US market and looks for blessing in disguise counter and of cause if u hv USD$$ in plenty, below five companies make swine flu vaccine for the U.S. market:

1) AstraZeneca's
[AZN 46.16 -0.14 (-0.3%) ]
2) MedImmune unit, CSL
3) GlaxoSmithKline
[GSK 39.44 -0.59 (-1.47%) ]
4) Novartis
[NVS 45.30 -0.19 (-0.42%) ]
5) Sanofi-Aventis
[SNY 33.94 0.06 (+0.18%) ]

.
CSL and Sanofi have started U.S. trials and several companies, including Glaxo, have trials ongoing in Europe. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration will license the new vaccine as a "strain change" from seasonal influenza — treating it as the usual annual reformulation of the annual flu vaccine.
Pandemic H1N1 is circulating widely and experts expect it to get worse in the Northern Hemisphere's fall as schools get under way. The council's report says the virus, although moderate, poses a serious health threat to the United States because it is likely to infect so many people.
(source : CNBC)
...

KLCI update ...



KLCI is not oversold yet base on technical reading ... if there is a major correction, the CI index will fall below the red line (Moving Average of 100)

Foreign Fund Movement ...

..
August survey by Bank of America Merill Lynch reports that fund managers have been recently shifting away their investment
focus from China to Europe, Middle-East and Africa (source: The Edge) ....

Some of the stock locally also sold down heavily by foreign fund from US like KNM ...

As such, there could be more volatility ahead for regional market from the east ...

Thursday, August 20, 2009

Bursa CL

Some education on buying the proxy of a mother share
BURSA-CL >= 0.60
Maturing date = 09/06/2010
Conversion ratio = 5 : 1
Conversion price = 5.00
BURSA price now = 7.8
Calculation Assume you buy 1000 at 0.6, 5,000 share = 0.6*1000*5 = 3,000
Conversion price = 5,000
Total cost = 3000 + 5,000
= 8000
BURSA price now = 7,800
Premium = 8,000 - 7800 = 200

If the price of BURSA moves 1.00 from 7.8 to 8.8, the price of BURSA-CL will also move accordingly ...
The return on mother share from 7.8- 8.8 = 12 %.
If the CL move to match the fair value of 8.8, the new price is approximately 0.76, which is an increase of 0.16 (0.76-0.6), the return is 0.16 = 26%, more than double the return

In a bull market, there is always an urge to enter the market cheaply via a proxy of a mother share to maximise profit. The return is magnify many times but the risks as well when the market turn against you. Also, the expiry date is another factor to consider. Your holding can become zero when reaching the expiry/maturing date, in another words, you can't hold this kind of share for long.
You must always think of an exit criteria when you buy into proxy.