http://www.bloomberg.com/video/63885746/
Oct. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, talks about his investment strategy for commodities and the outlook for the Chinese economy. Rogers speaks from Singapore with Andrea Catherwood on Bloomberg Television's "The Pulse." (Source: Bloomberg)
Also he is not favourable to recent US Fed reserves move to "Print more money" to revise the economy
Friday, November 5, 2010
Thursday, November 4, 2010
The Biggest Holders of US Government Debt
15. Taiwan
US debt holdings: $130.2 billion
Taiwan's holdings of US debt have fluctuated between $120.5 billion and $152.4 billion over the past year.
To date, Taiwan holds $130.2 billion in Treasury securities, which is only $1.2 billion more than the next highest national debt purchaser, Russia, whose holdings stand at $129 billion.
14. Hong Kong
US debt holdings: $137.8 billion
Hong Kong is one of the world's largest holders of US debt, although in 2010 the region has cut its holdings by approximately $10 billion from January levels.
13. Caribbean Banking Centers
US debt holdings: $159.1 billion
The US Treasury identifies this group as institutions in the Bahamas, Bermuda, the Cayman Islands, Netherlands Antilles, Panama and the British Virgin Islands.
Holdings are currently listed at $159.1 billion, up about $30 billion from a year earlier, but still off the group's high of $213.6 billion in March 2009.
12. Brazil
US debt holdings: $165 billion
The South American economic giant has $165 billion in holdings, according to the Treasury.
Brazil’s investment into US debt has been fluctuating slightly over the past two years, with current holdings testing the high of $170.8 billion hit in Feb 2010.
11. Oil Exporters
US debt holdings: $226.6 billion
Big oil means big money... and big investment into US debt.
Included in the group of oil exporters are Ecuador, Venezuela, Indonesia, Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Algeria, Gabon, Libya, and Nigeria.
The group combines for a total of $226.6 billion, which is a slight increase from the $190 billion to $220 billion range they have maintained in recent history.
10. Insurance Companies
US debt holdings: $260.6 billion
According to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, insurance companies hold $260.6 billion in Treasury securities. This group includes property-casualty and life insurance firms.
9. Depository Institutions
US debt holdings: $273.7 billion
As of March 2010 (the most recent numbers currently available), the Federal Reserve Board of Governors lists depository institutions as holding approximately $273.7 billion in US debt.
This group includes commercial banks, savings banks and credit unions and has nearly tripled from Q4 2008, when holdings stood at $105 billion.
8. United Kingdom
US debt holdings: $448.4 billion
Britain currently holds $448.4 billion in US debt. The country has been ramping up its debt in 2010, rising from $218.8 billion in January to $448.4 billion in the most recent numbers, which have them doubling in an 8 month span.
7. State and Local Governments
US debt holdings: $534.7 billion
US state and local governments have over a half-trillion dollars invested in American debt, according to the Federal Reserve.
The level of investment has remained very stable over the past three years, moving within the range of $534.7 billion and $550.3 billion from 2006 to 2009, and although the amount has been increasing, the total value of holdings are off the highs.
However, this number does not include an additional $181.6 billion of holdings of treasury notes in state and local government pension funds.
6. Pension Funds
US debt holdings: $643.8 billion
Pension funds control large amounts of money, reserved for personal retirements, and thus are obligated to make relatively safe investments.
This group includes both private and local government pension funds, totaling $643.8 billion. The private pension fund category also includes US Treasury securities held by the Federal Employees Retirement System Thrift Savings Plan "G Fund."
5. Mutual Funds
US debt holdings: $648.6 billion
According to the Federal Reserve, mutual funds hold the fifth largest amount of US debt compared to any other group, although mutual fund holdings have diminished by nearly $120 billion since December 2008.
Including money market funds, mutual funds and closed-end funds, this group of investments manages approximately $648.6 billion of US Treasury securities as of March 2010, which are the most recent numbers available.
4. Japan
US debt holdings: $836.6 billion
A major US trade partner, Japan holds a huge amount of American debt, and has traditionally been one of the US's largest debt holders, currently owning $836.6 billion of treasury securities.
3. China
US debt holdings: $868.4 billion
The largest foreign holder of US Treasury securities, China currently holds $868.4 billion in American debt, although it is off the all time highs of $900.2 billion in April 2010.
2. Other Investors/Savings Bonds
US debt holdings $1.266 trillion
With the most recent numbers from June 2010, this extremely diverse group includes individuals, government-sponsored enterprises, brokers and dealers, bank personal trusts, estates, savings bonds, corporate and non-corporate businesses for a total of $1.266 trillion.
Although the level of debt held in U.S. savings bonds has remained relatively constant since 2000, the broad category of "Other" investors has nearly quadrupled since reaching a four-year low in September 2007
1. Federal Reserve and Intragovernmental Holdings
US debt holdings: $5.345 trillion
That’s right, the biggest holder of US government debt is actually within the United States. The Federal Reserve system of banks and other US intragovernmental holdings account for a stunning $5.345 trillion in US Treasury debt. This is the most recent number available (June 2010), and marks an all-time high.
About a decade ago, the total government holdings were "only" $2.5 trillion.
US debt holdings: $130.2 billion
Taiwan's holdings of US debt have fluctuated between $120.5 billion and $152.4 billion over the past year.
To date, Taiwan holds $130.2 billion in Treasury securities, which is only $1.2 billion more than the next highest national debt purchaser, Russia, whose holdings stand at $129 billion.
14. Hong Kong
US debt holdings: $137.8 billion
Hong Kong is one of the world's largest holders of US debt, although in 2010 the region has cut its holdings by approximately $10 billion from January levels.
13. Caribbean Banking Centers
US debt holdings: $159.1 billion
The US Treasury identifies this group as institutions in the Bahamas, Bermuda, the Cayman Islands, Netherlands Antilles, Panama and the British Virgin Islands.
Holdings are currently listed at $159.1 billion, up about $30 billion from a year earlier, but still off the group's high of $213.6 billion in March 2009.
12. Brazil
US debt holdings: $165 billion
The South American economic giant has $165 billion in holdings, according to the Treasury.
Brazil’s investment into US debt has been fluctuating slightly over the past two years, with current holdings testing the high of $170.8 billion hit in Feb 2010.
11. Oil Exporters
US debt holdings: $226.6 billion
Big oil means big money... and big investment into US debt.
Included in the group of oil exporters are Ecuador, Venezuela, Indonesia, Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Algeria, Gabon, Libya, and Nigeria.
The group combines for a total of $226.6 billion, which is a slight increase from the $190 billion to $220 billion range they have maintained in recent history.
10. Insurance Companies
US debt holdings: $260.6 billion
According to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, insurance companies hold $260.6 billion in Treasury securities. This group includes property-casualty and life insurance firms.
9. Depository Institutions
US debt holdings: $273.7 billion
As of March 2010 (the most recent numbers currently available), the Federal Reserve Board of Governors lists depository institutions as holding approximately $273.7 billion in US debt.
This group includes commercial banks, savings banks and credit unions and has nearly tripled from Q4 2008, when holdings stood at $105 billion.
8. United Kingdom
US debt holdings: $448.4 billion
Britain currently holds $448.4 billion in US debt. The country has been ramping up its debt in 2010, rising from $218.8 billion in January to $448.4 billion in the most recent numbers, which have them doubling in an 8 month span.
7. State and Local Governments
US debt holdings: $534.7 billion
US state and local governments have over a half-trillion dollars invested in American debt, according to the Federal Reserve.
The level of investment has remained very stable over the past three years, moving within the range of $534.7 billion and $550.3 billion from 2006 to 2009, and although the amount has been increasing, the total value of holdings are off the highs.
However, this number does not include an additional $181.6 billion of holdings of treasury notes in state and local government pension funds.
6. Pension Funds
US debt holdings: $643.8 billion
Pension funds control large amounts of money, reserved for personal retirements, and thus are obligated to make relatively safe investments.
This group includes both private and local government pension funds, totaling $643.8 billion. The private pension fund category also includes US Treasury securities held by the Federal Employees Retirement System Thrift Savings Plan "G Fund."
5. Mutual Funds
US debt holdings: $648.6 billion
According to the Federal Reserve, mutual funds hold the fifth largest amount of US debt compared to any other group, although mutual fund holdings have diminished by nearly $120 billion since December 2008.
Including money market funds, mutual funds and closed-end funds, this group of investments manages approximately $648.6 billion of US Treasury securities as of March 2010, which are the most recent numbers available.
4. Japan
US debt holdings: $836.6 billion
A major US trade partner, Japan holds a huge amount of American debt, and has traditionally been one of the US's largest debt holders, currently owning $836.6 billion of treasury securities.
3. China
US debt holdings: $868.4 billion
The largest foreign holder of US Treasury securities, China currently holds $868.4 billion in American debt, although it is off the all time highs of $900.2 billion in April 2010.
2. Other Investors/Savings Bonds
US debt holdings $1.266 trillion
With the most recent numbers from June 2010, this extremely diverse group includes individuals, government-sponsored enterprises, brokers and dealers, bank personal trusts, estates, savings bonds, corporate and non-corporate businesses for a total of $1.266 trillion.
Although the level of debt held in U.S. savings bonds has remained relatively constant since 2000, the broad category of "Other" investors has nearly quadrupled since reaching a four-year low in September 2007
1. Federal Reserve and Intragovernmental Holdings
US debt holdings: $5.345 trillion
That’s right, the biggest holder of US government debt is actually within the United States. The Federal Reserve system of banks and other US intragovernmental holdings account for a stunning $5.345 trillion in US Treasury debt. This is the most recent number available (June 2010), and marks an all-time high.
About a decade ago, the total government holdings were "only" $2.5 trillion.
The impact on US Fed latest move on world economy
The Federal Reserve launched a fresh effort on Wednesday to support the struggling U.S. economy, committing to buy $600 billion in government bonds with new money.
1) US dollar will be weaken and hence increase capital inflows into Latin America and Asia especially China, causing hot money to boom in those countries especially in those respective stock market.
2) It will put pressure on the dollar to weaken, thus pushing up global commodity prices, including oil. So it will increase imported inflation pressure in some countries, including China
What the Fed's $600 Billion Plan Really Means
Why is the Federal Reserve buying bonds?
It wants to lower interest rates, in the hopes that doing so will loosen the supply of credit and spur more economic activity. The central bank’s main tool for reducing rates is to slash the short-term overnight lending that banks charge to one another, the so-called Federal Funds rate. Bring short-term rates down, and long-term rates tend to follow. In normal times, that’s as far as the Fed usually goes. In the past three years, the Fed has reduced the Fed Funds target rate 10 times, from 5.25 percent to between zero and .25 percent. It’s been at that extremely low level since the fall of 2008.
Once the Fed Funds rate can’t get any lower, what else can the Fed do?
It can buy assets, or engage in what’s known as quantitative easing (QE). Adjusting the Fed Funds directly influences short-term rates. The Fed can also influence long-term rates by purchasing (or selling) long-term debt in the open market. When lots of people -- or one big buyer -- buy bonds at the same time, it drives prices up and interest rates down. As the nation’s central bank, the Fed can create money and simply announce that it will buy large quantities of bonds.
Hasn’t it done something like that already?
Yes. In its first effort at quantitative easing, the Fed in 2009 and early 2010 bought more than $1 trillion in mortgage-backed securities in an effort to reduce interest rates on home mortgages. Partially in response to the purchases, mortgage rates fell to historically low levels.
So what is it doing now?
This is a smaller effort. The Fed says that, as part of an effort to lower interest rates, it will buy $600 billion of Treasury bonds between now and the end of June 2011, at a rate of about $75 billion per month. (The New York Fed has the details of the purchases here.)
But the market reacted at first by pushing interest rates on the 10-year and 30-year government bonds higher. What gives?
The Fed said it would focus its buying power on bonds that mature in four to six years,
with more than 85 percent of the purchases concentrated in bonds that mature between 2.5 and 10 years from now. Investors were expecting that the Fed might spend more on longer-dated Treasury securities, and sold them once they learned of the Fed’s plans.
Will these purchases alone guarantee that interest rates will fall?
No. Investors love to repeat the mantra: Don’t fight the Fed. But as much firepower as the central bank possesses, the Fed isn’t the only powerful economic force in the world. And interest rates can be impacted by all sorts of factors. If China’s central bank cuts back sharply on its purchases of U.S. government bonds, interest rates will rise. Investors’ attitudes about the pace of growth, or inflation, play an important role in determining market interest rates.
Whom is this good for?
In theory, it should be good news for borrowers of all types, but in particular corporate ones. If mid-term borrowing costs fall across the board, more companies should be able to refinance existing debt at lower levels, or take on new debt at lower cost. In theory, lower rates for big borrowers (i.e. banks) should mean credit will be more plentiful, or available on easier terms to businesses and individuals. And of course, any move the Fed makes to reduce interest rates tends to be a positive for stocks.
Whom is this bad for?
Savers. In this low-interest-rate environment, people who live on fixed incomes have had great difficulty finding safe instruments that deliver significant returns. To the extent this effort succeeds at holding longer-term interest down, it makes that task all the more difficult.
Government bonds are risk-free investments. What are the risks the Fed runs by taking more government bonds onto its balance sheet?
There are a couple of risks. First, low interest rates and the expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet tend to weaken the dollar. But the second -- and larger -- risk is that it won’t work. Interest rates are already exceedingly low, and it’s unclear how lowering them a bit more will induce companies and individuals to change their behavior significantly. Quantitative easing doesn’t directly address the underlying problem in the economy: that demand is too weak to fuel satisfactory growth. To combat weak demand, fiscal policy -- e.g., tax cuts, rebates, a payroll tax holiday, jobs program -- is often more effective than monetary policy. But fiscal policy remains paralyzed. Ideally, fiscal and monetary policy should be working in tandem. In the current situation, Bernanke is cranking up the volume while the political system is sitting on its hands. Imagine a two-engine jet trying to fly with only one engine revving.
( Courtecy of Yahoo Finance )
1) US dollar will be weaken and hence increase capital inflows into Latin America and Asia especially China, causing hot money to boom in those countries especially in those respective stock market.
2) It will put pressure on the dollar to weaken, thus pushing up global commodity prices, including oil. So it will increase imported inflation pressure in some countries, including China
What the Fed's $600 Billion Plan Really Means
Why is the Federal Reserve buying bonds?
It wants to lower interest rates, in the hopes that doing so will loosen the supply of credit and spur more economic activity. The central bank’s main tool for reducing rates is to slash the short-term overnight lending that banks charge to one another, the so-called Federal Funds rate. Bring short-term rates down, and long-term rates tend to follow. In normal times, that’s as far as the Fed usually goes. In the past three years, the Fed has reduced the Fed Funds target rate 10 times, from 5.25 percent to between zero and .25 percent. It’s been at that extremely low level since the fall of 2008.
Once the Fed Funds rate can’t get any lower, what else can the Fed do?
It can buy assets, or engage in what’s known as quantitative easing (QE). Adjusting the Fed Funds directly influences short-term rates. The Fed can also influence long-term rates by purchasing (or selling) long-term debt in the open market. When lots of people -- or one big buyer -- buy bonds at the same time, it drives prices up and interest rates down. As the nation’s central bank, the Fed can create money and simply announce that it will buy large quantities of bonds.
Hasn’t it done something like that already?
Yes. In its first effort at quantitative easing, the Fed in 2009 and early 2010 bought more than $1 trillion in mortgage-backed securities in an effort to reduce interest rates on home mortgages. Partially in response to the purchases, mortgage rates fell to historically low levels.
So what is it doing now?
This is a smaller effort. The Fed says that, as part of an effort to lower interest rates, it will buy $600 billion of Treasury bonds between now and the end of June 2011, at a rate of about $75 billion per month. (The New York Fed has the details of the purchases here.)
But the market reacted at first by pushing interest rates on the 10-year and 30-year government bonds higher. What gives?
The Fed said it would focus its buying power on bonds that mature in four to six years,
with more than 85 percent of the purchases concentrated in bonds that mature between 2.5 and 10 years from now. Investors were expecting that the Fed might spend more on longer-dated Treasury securities, and sold them once they learned of the Fed’s plans.
Will these purchases alone guarantee that interest rates will fall?
No. Investors love to repeat the mantra: Don’t fight the Fed. But as much firepower as the central bank possesses, the Fed isn’t the only powerful economic force in the world. And interest rates can be impacted by all sorts of factors. If China’s central bank cuts back sharply on its purchases of U.S. government bonds, interest rates will rise. Investors’ attitudes about the pace of growth, or inflation, play an important role in determining market interest rates.
Whom is this good for?
In theory, it should be good news for borrowers of all types, but in particular corporate ones. If mid-term borrowing costs fall across the board, more companies should be able to refinance existing debt at lower levels, or take on new debt at lower cost. In theory, lower rates for big borrowers (i.e. banks) should mean credit will be more plentiful, or available on easier terms to businesses and individuals. And of course, any move the Fed makes to reduce interest rates tends to be a positive for stocks.
Whom is this bad for?
Savers. In this low-interest-rate environment, people who live on fixed incomes have had great difficulty finding safe instruments that deliver significant returns. To the extent this effort succeeds at holding longer-term interest down, it makes that task all the more difficult.
Government bonds are risk-free investments. What are the risks the Fed runs by taking more government bonds onto its balance sheet?
There are a couple of risks. First, low interest rates and the expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet tend to weaken the dollar. But the second -- and larger -- risk is that it won’t work. Interest rates are already exceedingly low, and it’s unclear how lowering them a bit more will induce companies and individuals to change their behavior significantly. Quantitative easing doesn’t directly address the underlying problem in the economy: that demand is too weak to fuel satisfactory growth. To combat weak demand, fiscal policy -- e.g., tax cuts, rebates, a payroll tax holiday, jobs program -- is often more effective than monetary policy. But fiscal policy remains paralyzed. Ideally, fiscal and monetary policy should be working in tandem. In the current situation, Bernanke is cranking up the volume while the political system is sitting on its hands. Imagine a two-engine jet trying to fly with only one engine revving.
( Courtecy of Yahoo Finance )
Monday, November 1, 2010
Timber stock on the run ..... WTK !
WTK ... a pure timber related stock with major export to India and Japan, rebounded from its recent low after 1 US fund sold off its share holding to below 5%. WTK share price was badly cap as a result of such selldown.
If this breakout is real, the share price will shoot pass its recent high at 1.53 and thereafter headed north all the way to 2.70, giving a return of more than 100% in less than a year ...lets put our finger cross amist the world economy uncertainty ....check mate ?!
If this breakout is real, the share price will shoot pass its recent high at 1.53 and thereafter headed north all the way to 2.70, giving a return of more than 100% in less than a year ...lets put our finger cross amist the world economy uncertainty ....check mate ?!
Jaya Jusco over the top ?
AEON Bhd, the listed entity that hold Jaya Jusco brand of super and hyper market in Malaysia, saw its share price peak at all time high, 6.08. According to grapevine, this is related to the bid to take over Carrefour Operation in Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore. However, after reaching its peak at 6.08, it is down down all the way. It had fell through its MA 50. Will it continue to dip further or a rebounce is around the corner ?
Time to pause and monitor ....
Time to pause and monitor ....
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