Soros - 8 years to go before the next crash…

Railway porter-turned-billionaire financier George Soros delivered a stark warning last night that the financial world is on the wrong track and that we may be hurtling towards an even bigger boom and bust than in the credit crisis.

The man who ‘broke’ the Bank of England (and who is still able to earn a cool $3.3 bln in a year) said the same strategy of borrowing and spending that had got us out of the Asian crisis could shunt us towards another crisis unless tough lessons are learned.

Soros, who worked as a porter to pay for his studies at the London School of Economics after emigrating from Hungary, warned us to heed the lesson that modern economics had got it wrong and that markets are not inherently stable.

“The success in bailing out the system on the previous occasion led to a superbubble, except that in 2008 we used the same methods,” he told a meeting hosted by The Economist at the City of London’s modern and impressive Haberdashers’ Hall.

“Unless we learn the lessons, that markets are inherently unstable and that stability needs to the objective of public policy, we are facing a yet larger bubble.

“We have added to the leverage by replacing private credit with sovereign credit and increasing national debt by a significant amount.”

One crumb of comfort could be the 10-year period between the 1998 Asian crisis and the 2008 credit crisis. If the pattern is repeated, it should at least mean we have another 8 years to go before the next crash…

source : Reuter

TSMC "forecast on Global Chip Sales to Increase 22% in 2010"

Top contract chipmaker Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC) said it expects global sales of semiconductors to rise 22 percent this year and 7 percent next amid a recovery from last year's slump.


The forecast was given by Chairman Morris Chang at a company technology symposium held in the U.S. on April 13. Details of the speech were given to reporters in Taipei in a teleconference with company spokesman J.H. Tzeng on Wednesday.

Chang said the growth outlook for the semiconductor market this year and next year was healthy, while annual growth would slow to 4.2 percent in 2011-2014, partly as other new key components such as touch-screen panels are used in electronics products.

His forecast for this year is largely in line with market expectations.

Global semiconductor revenue in 2010 is set to reach $279.7 billion, up 21.5 percent from 2009, according to research firm iSuppli Corp. Gartner forecast worldwide semiconductor revenue growth at 20 percent this year.

TSMC, which counts Texas Instruments [TXN 26.90 1.03 (+3.98%) ] and Nvidia [NVDA 17.88 0.22 (+1.25%) ] among its clients, reported unconsolidated sales of T$30.82 billion ($975 million) for last month, more than double a year earlier and up 5.6 percent from February.

TSMC and No.2 chip foundry United Microelectronics Corp. (UMC) have said they would boost capital spending significantly this year to tap demand for new computers, cellphones and flat-screen TVs that require more powerful microchips.

But analysts say a wider customer base and early adoption of more advanced technology would help TSMC yield higher profit margins than UMC and other smaller rivals in coming months.

In a separate statement released by TSMC on Wednesday, the company said it would start using more advanced 20-nanometre process chip production technology in the second half of 2012.

Sales of microchips made by 65-nanometre technology, or 65 billionths of a meter, accounted for 30 percent of TSMC's total sales in the fourth quarter of 2009, while 9 percent of its sales came from advanced 40-nano technology in the same quarter.

The smaller circuitry allows for more powerful chip designs. Squeezing more circuits onto a single chip also increases chip yield per wafer, boosting

Source : Reuter

Trader or investor ?

The main difference between a trader and an investor is the duration for which the person holds the asset. Investors tend to have a longer term time horizon, whereas traders tend to hold assets for shorter periods of time in order to capitalize on short-term trends.
If you keep hop in and hop out of share market frequently within a month or so, that clasify you as a trader instead of investor. Meaning, you will capitalise on market weakness and strength to place your entry and exit from the market. A trader is more agressive than a investor. Investor tend to trade base on fundamental and hold stock for longer time period until there is changes to the company regarless of short term market sentiment.
You need to identify if you are a trader or investor to place your strategy to share market investment, both can be very profitable if plan wisely.

Timber industry on the move next ?!

Last year export fell 15% to RM19.4 B
Major market - US, Japan
- US housing starts increased 21% YOY to 591000 units in Jan10 compare to 1 mil in Jan08
- Japan fell 8% YOY to 64000 units in Jan10
- Euro environmental lobbyists cause limit timber imports ..

Source . ..... Malaysian Timber council's woodmart 2010 n HLG

Preview of major counters.....

FY11 E PE
Lingui - 20 x
J tiasa - 18 x
TA Ann - 11 x
WTK - 10 x

Correction is over for KLSE ?

It seems the correction is over when the index touched MA 100 early Feb10. The index is heading upward after hitting oversold condition. Having say that, the uptrend will be disturbed on a bumpy road moving forward. Or it could resumes its down trend for another round depends on circumtances .. similar trend to 1998/99
Despite index moving downwards for a couple of weeks, some stocks out-perform the market. Stock like 3A, Mudajaya, Eforce lead in the lower liner ...